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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.