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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."